Today marks the official launch of the iPhone 4S. Apple stores are reporting record-breaking lines; analysts are projecting that as many as 4 million units could sell this weekend alone.
After a week of staggering pre-order sales that raked in over a million units sold in first 24 hours alone, Apple and its mobile carrier partners are officially launching the iPhone 4S today amidst an unprecedented level of consumer interest. Tech analysts are forecasting that iPhone 4S sales will top 4 million this weekend alone between Apple’s own sales and the sales of all its affiliates. The newest iteration of Apple’s flagship smartphone is now on sale in the United States, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the UK.
For as much as the first weekend of iPhone 4 sales in 2010 was impressive — with 1.7 million units sold — the expectation of 4 million iPhone 4S sales is almost unfathomable. Just to put it in perspective, the tech media is touting the short-term success of Amazon’s new 7-inch, $199 Kindle Fire tablet, which is expected to sell 5 million units throughout the entire fourth quarter of 2011.
Apple will easily top that number by Sunday night with iPhone 4S sales.
There are three contributing factors to the early success of the iPhone 4S. First and foremost is the success of the iPhone 4, which has exponentially outperformed every other single competing smartphone on the market today (Android smartphones as a block account for more sales, but this block includes a multiplicity of different Android models) and has enjoyed more sales than all other sales of previous iPhone iterations combined. The iPhone 4 injected the iPhone into the mainstream, paving the way for the iPhone 4S’s success.
A second factor is the addition of Sprint as a mobile carrier partner for Apple in the U.S. Sprint is the third-largest U.S. mobile network, and most of their subscribership losses over the past years have come from their lack of the iPhone in their roster of smartphones. The addition of the iPhone — a gamble for Sprint — is bound to bolster Apple’s iPhone 4S sales in the U.S.
Third, the buzz surrounding the “iPhone 5″ over the past year clearly intensified interest and excitement for the iPhone 4S. While it is true that hardcore iPhone enthusiasts were disappointed by the lack of new form factor, larger screen, and “iPhone 5″ product name, the iPhone 4S’s groundbreaking new features, such as Siri voice activation, an improved camera function, and the launch of iCloud, are slowly winning over Apple devoteés as well.
It’s worth remembering that analysts predicted that the iPhone 5 would sell anywhere between 15 and 25 units in 2011 alone, and that 35% of all consumers would eventually come to own an iPhone within a year’s time. With the Christmas season fast approaching and the excitement for the iPhone 4S continuing to build, those numbers still seem entirely realistic.
By Michael Nace
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@Hugo: I bought an iPhone 4 case for my 4S and it fits, no problems whatsoever with the camera. Hope that helps!
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Hard Candy Street case for AT&T/CDMA fits PERFECT. Got a Black and Clear case for the white phone.
Hard Candy Cases Street Skin CDMA iPhone 4 Case, Black (AT&T/Verizon iPhone 4)
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@ John Berggren
I noticed they opened up the area around the 4S camera vs. the 4 camera as well. I’ve already ordered the 4S one rather than the 4. My thinking is that they wouldn’t have done that for nothing (not like they rose the price or anything). Though Apple says the cases are compatible, I wasn’t about to take the risk. IF you do buy the iphone 4 one and it works perfect with it, please let us know if the camera area is ok because I’d rather have the camera area be as protected as possible.
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@Michael Nace & @Brett
Pent up demand is the #1 answer. #2 is going to be that people just love and trust Apple products. This launch would have been successful in June. This launch is inflated a fair bit by the June-October wait.
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Thanks Brett!! Hope you enjoy your phone too!
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Hi Brett, and many thanks for your comment. I really do appreciate and respect your opinion that the record-breaking success of the iPhone 4S is a result of Steve Jobs death, but I just don’t think I agree. Your comparison of Michael Jackson and Amy Winehouse is an interesting one, but I think you’re comparing apples and oranges [no pun intended]. For an entertainer or musician, their product is a direct reflection of their own self; a Michael Jackson CD is the recreation of Michael’s songs and performance. The iPhone in an of itself does not recreate Steve Jobs for the user in the way that Thriller recreates Michael Jackson for the listener. While I agree that people ascribe the iPhone and iPad to be Steve Jobs’ inventions — much like the lightbulb is seem to be Thomas Edison’s invention — the iPhone and Steve Jobs’ public persona are no inextricably linked.
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Thanks Hugo! Now I just hope that the cases are the 4S cases. The website shows a larger camera portal than what I’m seeing at BestBuy. I’d hate for anything to interfere with the new camera optics.
@tim a Thank you too, though once I am decided, I’m pretty firm, and I’ve heard too much good feedback for OtterBox across the board. I have replaced my iPhone 3G case a bunch of times, and I want to be once-and-done (unless I want to change the colors later).
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Aggi
ENJOY YOUR NEW PHONE AND HOPE IT GIVES YOU MUCH HAPPINESS
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The fact there are more carriers for iPhone in the US now has certainly helped the 4S but I think what has really made the thing a record breaker is Steve Jobs death.
Steve Jobs dies and some people for not logical reason other than possibly some kind of tribute want to go out and get the latest iPhone.
When Michael Jackson died everybody rushed out to buy his albums and it was the same when Amy Winehouse died, maybe its some kind of tribute or something but when celebraties die very often people will want to do something like that.
Steve Jobs death has been plastered all over the media, we have had tributes from friends and competitors alike and the hardcore Apple fans see him as a god so I can imagine that being a major factor in the overnight success of the 4S despite the fact its just an iPhone 4 with a few little gimiks like Siri and the camera has been brought inline with industry standard because Blackberry, Androids, Windows most of them have 8 megapixel or higher.
I think short term mostly thanks to Steve’s death the 4S sales will skyrocket but give it 3-4 month, Steve Jobs is no longer in the media the new Droids are out and things will settle down and when they do I really do not see the 4S being top of the smartphone market that honour will probably go to Samsung who have set the benchmark for all the others to try and reach.
I also wonder how many of the pre ordered phones will be returned which you often get from the people who want to be amongst the first to own the new iPhone and after a couple of days playing with it they decide they want to take it back.
When the returns are made I think it will start to give a clearer picture of how the 4S will preform longer term.
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Hi guys!! I got my iPhone
went to the at&t store and there were 4 people before us but we actually got it first, so I was the first one to walk out of the store with the new iPhone! 
I’m really excited and I’ve been playing around a little bit with Siri, right now I’m syncing everything 
I got the white 32 GB one. Good luck to everyone getting their phones!
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Just waiting for UPS to arrive… Then need to pick up a case eventually.
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@john b you should check out lifeproof cases…they are sweet!
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@John Berggren – I’ve been using Otterbox cases for years. Go with the commuter unless you are REALLY going to beat the crap out of your phone. The commuter is more than enough for you to be able to drop your phone once in a while without issues. Plus, as you said yourself, the defender is REALLY bulky.
@Shane – that’s really encouraging…I REALLY want to get mine today, but need my parents to sign off on the contract for me unfortunately (yay for being 22 and still in your parents plan! :/)…so I’m going to pick my mother up from work and give it a shot at a few places.
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Well I got mine! Called the Apple store yesterday around 4 and they said people were already lining up, so I decided to explore some other options. Radioshack still had preorders available, but it would only possibly be at the store on Saturday. Best Buy said that if I preordered and showed up early then I would get one. So I pre-ordered and showed up early and they did not have said phone for me. Drove on over to the Verizon store near by hoping to get lucky, there was a line of about 10 people in front of me, and they had more than enough phones for everyone. They said they don’t even expect to sell-out today. So! For all of you who can’t find a phone and want one, check your carrier stores!
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Michael:
I was thinking the other day about how Siri is being publicly released as a “beta” which is unusual for Apple. Based on the information streaming in from reviewers, we have a good idea of why they would want people to consider it a beta, not a fully implemented concept. There are various shortcomings in Siri’s integration– i.e., things that it should be able to do but can’t because the integration in iOS is incomplete. (Not being able to launch apps by voice is one example.)
I was wondering why Apple may have chosen to do that. One possibility is that they may have decided to push up the release of Siri because they felt that it was mature enough to get a lot of buzz surrounding the iPhone 4S, because it seems like without Siri, a lot of people would be less interested. Another alternative is that Apple felt that releasing Siri would super-charge the development process and help them collect sampling data and fine-tune Siri so they can achieve better integration faster. (After all, the best way to figure out what people are going to do with software is to let them use it.)
What do you think?
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Mine are waiting for me at Best Buy. I couldn’t wait this morning, or I’d never have gotten to work. Already have the invisibleShield installed front & back, but having trouble deciding on the Otterbox.
Should I go defender or commuter?
Defender seems bulky/unweildy
Commuter seems more traditional
Does the defender offer so much more protection that I should get it? Or stick with the slimmer commuter? Thoughts?
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as much as you hate the thought, Steve is dead. Apple has to complete, grow and survive. They have really smart people there that have all stepped up these past several years…they will be fine. Apple will really have to really screw up for them to trip up.
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